Posted by: bkivey | 7 May 2024

Weeks of Appreciation

Today is the second day of Teacher Recognition Week, and I was a little surprised that teachers had a whole week, whereas most public recognition is confined to a 24-hour span. I had thought that this was a case of mission-creep, expanding from one day to a week, and, because most teachers are public employees of some stripe, perhaps a case of Government-bloating.

Well, surprise, surprise, surprise. Teachers aren’t the only ones to have staked out a week for themselves. Over at the National Today site, one can find a truly staggering list of Appreciation Days. Whatever wildly-inflated number of such days you thought there were, you are almost certainly low. Very low. Today, 7 May, is Beaufort Scale Day, National Avery Day, National Foster Care Day, National Packaging Design Day, and Poem on Your Pillow Day. It is also the second day of Donkey Week. Given the general political inclinations of teachers, there is maybe a pithy observation somewhere in there.

Besides teachers and donkeys, other week-long May-specific recognitions are:

Youth Week 4 May to 10 May. New Zealand only.

National Correctional Officers Week First full week in May. What, not 5 to 10?

National Tourism Week 5 May to 10 May.

Pet Appreciation Week 5 May to 11 May

Public Service Recognition Week 5 May to 11 May

National Salvation Army Week 13 May – 19 May. Originally observed 28 November to 4 December.

National Police Week 15 May – 21 May

International Coaching Week 17 May – 23 May

Public Works Week 19 May – 25 May

British Tomato Fortnight 20 May – 2 June. A period of two weeks, but more than a day, less than a month.

And that is just May. For spins and giggles, I looked at my birthday. It includes National Baker Day, Redhead Appreciation Day, and World Reflexology Week. I notice that the day prior is International Day of Radiant Peace, and the day after is Bluebird of Happiness Day. What the hell? I feel like I was born on a rather inauspicious day, a sort of Valley of the Shadow kind of thing. Well, I can claim the First Day of Autumn. Some years.

Random Images

The second reason people don’t like sports car owners. The first, of course, being driving without regard for public safety. If one looks to the right, and behind, one will see an entire shopping mall worth of parking, with an abundance of empty stalls. If desired, you can easily park far away from other cars. There is no reason whatever to park directly in front of product, outside the owner’s dumbassery. They may not want to risk door dings, but here are a couple of realities: 1) if you drive your car in the real world, you have to accept the possibility of real-world damage. 2) If you look on the bottom edges of the fenders and rocker panels, you will see many small chips and dings from the wheels throwing up debris on the road. Every car has them. The car is not flawless.

I was hoping someone would need fertilizer, and ‘accidently’ have one split open on the car.

Imagine my surprise when I flipped on the bedroom light, and saw I had a visitor. Picked it up by the tail, opened the door, and tossed it back into the woods.

We’ve had cars and animals, now a bit of both. A couple of Jaguars in front of my local, recently. Honestly, that’s more class than this place can stand.

Posted by: bkivey | 2 May 2024

Time Crystals

First proposed in 2012, and a story element in the 2019 Avengers movie, time crystals are a state of matter in which an organized system spontaneously breaks time-symmetry, in the same manner an organized system can spontaneously break space-symmetry; like homogenous (symmetrical) liquid water turning to oriented (non-symmetrical) ice crystals. The resulting time crystal system oscillates between two regular and repeating states in time and space. This sounds suspiciously like perpetual motion and a concomitant 2nd Law violation, but because the system is in it’s lowest quantum energy state, there is no energy to convert, nor can energy be extracted. And, time crystals have been observed, There’s even a movie of one in action.

Time crystals do not appear to be a necessarily solid state of affairs, and can be manufactured in a variety of ways, including lasers, to create room-temperature versions. More a very specific and constrained energy-state. Recent experiments have used quantum computers to achieve them. One group found them forming naturally in Helium-3 supercooled to within a gnat’s ass 10-5K of Absolute Zero. I would think that finding a naturally-occurring example of something that was a very recent mathematical construct, would be incredibly exciting. Be doing the hockey goal-scoring, fist-bumping, one-knee slide down the team bench.

Time crystals oscillate, but at a frequency of their choosing. Firing energy at the crystal will cause it to vibrate at some multiple of the driving frequency, rather than the frequency itself. Not what you would expect if everyone was playing by the same rules. But time crystals are switching state without interaction with the observable, and observing, Universe. No energy transfer. Only in the time dimension are they changing. This seems like quantum mechanical sorcery, and that notion is supported by their manufacture in quantum computers.

And currently, it is for quantum computing that this phenomenon is most valued. The idea is that information encoded in a time crystal is much less sensitive to external influences than current qubits. Time, or it’s sensible manifestation, does not appear to exist in a time crystal. If an outside influence is not time-synced with the crystal, it will effectively not exist, and not be able to interact with the information in the crystal.

And that is perhaps the most mind-blowing thing about time crystals. We know that intervals of time can be perceived on a wide spectrum, from the dilation of extreme stress, to the compression of good times. But, objective measurement of the temporal dimension in the observable Universe, is expected to be as invariant as any of the three sensible spatial dimensions. We now know that the Time in Space-Time can be isolated.

Quantum Computing

Hey kids! Do you have a school project coming up, and need time on a quantum computer? IBM has you covered. You can sign up for 10 free minutes of qubit time monthly, courtesy of Big Blue. There are paid plans available. Don’t know Jack about quantum programming? This article has a nice list of languages, most of which are open-source. I was surprised that been-around-forever Python is apparently commonly used not only for programming, but development. I was also surprised that an article titled “Top 5 Quantum Programming Languages In 2024” was published in 2022.

Posted by: bkivey | 25 April 2024

Are You Smarter Than an A-Lister?

As a supplement to the ‘Nine High IQ Societies” post, I put some famous names in the appropriate HiQ organization. I make no representation as to the veracity of the scores: I just copy what’s available. In cases where there are multiple values, I have used the lowest reported number. As well, I am assuming all scores are from a standardized test with a SD=15, and not a number someone’s publicist made up. Historical figure’s IQ’s are estimated from the body of work.

I could not find anyone smart enough to make The Omega Society, which is a problem they likely have, too.

Posted by: bkivey | 24 April 2024

S-A-T-U-R DeeAY

A recent look at the slightly disturbing prevalence of 17-year olds in rock music lyrics revealed that ‘seventeen’ may well be used for it’s songwriting convenience, and not for nefarious purposes. The three-syllable word is easy to work into lyric structure. Another three-syllable word that’s easy to write with is Saturday, and it may outdo every other day for song title, despite the best efforts of the Mamas & Papas. Starting with Mr. Sam Cooke:

Another Saturday Night (1964)

“Another Saturday night and I ain’t got nobody”

Saturday In The Park (Chicago 1972)

“Saturday, in the park”

Saturday Night (Eagles 1973)

“Whatever happened to Saturday night?”

Saturday NIght’s All Right For Fighting (Elton John 1973)

“Oh, Saturday night’s alright for fighting”

Saturday Night (Bay City Rollers 1974)

“On Saturday night, Saturday night”

Some might want to include ‘Saturday Night Special’ (Lynyrd Skynyrd 1975), but that is a slang term for a cheap handgun, and not really about the day. Maybe you could combine songs about seventeen, with songs about Saturday. Seventeen on a Saturday night? What couldn’t go wrong?

“Saturday, in the park”

“I saw him dancin’ there by the record machine
I knew he must’ve been about 17″

“Another Saturday night and I ain’t got nobody”

“But the moment that I first laid
Eyes on him, all alone
On the edge of seventeen”

“On Saturday night, Saturday night”

“Young and sweet
Only seventeen”

See? Start combining ‘seventeen’, with ‘ Saturday’, and you veer off into cougar territory.

Word Watch

Mondegreen (n) – “is a mishearing or misinterpretation of a phrase in a way that gives it a new meaning. Mondegreens are most often created by a person listening to a poem or a song; the listener, being unable to hear a lyric clearly, substitutes words that sound similar and make some kind of sense.”

An Example:

While writing this post, I looked at footage of Elton John’s “Saturday Night’s Alright For Fighting” from his 1980 Central Park concert. I have been a fan of Sir John since first hearing his music as a child, and this has been one of my favorites. There was a time when ‘classic rock’, was just, rock.

Because of the energetic way in which the song is performed, the lyrics can be difficult to understand. In the 50 years I’ve heard this song, I’ve never looked up the lyrics. I remedied that, and this is what the actual lyrics are, and what I thought they were.

Actual

“My sister looks cute in her braces and boots
A gob of grease in her hair”

Heard

“My sister looks cute in her braces and boots
She’s got the breeze in her hair”

Honestly, would you rather have ‘the breeze’, or ‘a gob of grease’, in your hair?

Actual

“We had it with your discipline”

Heard

I never knew what this line was. It sounded like ‘We had it with your destar plan’, which makes no sense.

Actual

“I’m a juvenile product of the working class
Whose best friend floats in the bottom of a glass, oh”

Heard

“I’m a usual product of the working class
Whose best friend floats in the bottom of a glass, oh”

I am sorry, Sir John, but I like mine, better.

Posted by: bkivey | 23 April 2024

Eight Unusual High IQ Societies (Updated)

I followed up the initial posting of “Nine High IQ Societies” with “Eight Unusual High IQ Societies”, which listed HiQ societies catering to specialist intelligences. I have updated the original information, but time has not been kind. As usual, where multiple qualifiying scores are given, they are for SD=15/SD=16 on a standardized test.

Mysterium

IQ 132+

Apparently defunct. The original link is inactive, without even a placeholder ‘Domain for
Sale’ page. The only ‘Mysterium’ I could find was for a board game. From the 2010 entry:

“Mysterium is not just another high IQ society. Mysterium is not something you join, receive a certificate to hang on the wall, then vegetate. Mysterium is not for the “average genius” with a pocket full of ideals and nothing to show for it. Mysterium is beyond outer space, inner space, and cyberspace. Mysterium is a nurturing, stimulating, and inspiring “growth link” to human creativity, ingenuity, and originality that is undergirded by experience and productivity.”

Chorium

IQ 135+/138+ 99th percentile, and pass a Musical IQ test.

No fee information

Semi-defunct. There is a page of information on the iqsocieties.org page, but links to a dedicated page are inoperative on a redirect error. A Musical IQ test is required, but there is apparently no way to access it. From the 2010 entry:

“Chorium was founded to promote intellectual engagement among musicians. It is free to join the community although membership is restricted to the the top 1% of the population. Prospective members have to complete a two part test which explores Classical and Musical I.Q.”

Poetic Genius Society

IQ 139+ (top 0.5%), and poetry or music published in a peer-reviewed venue.

No fee information

The site does have a page listing current members (or those who consent), with links to some. The homepage tab header says ‘99.5’, making it look like a radio station site.

“The Poetic Genius Society is composed of intellectually gifted individuals with a passion for poetry. They are the creative artists of our time, whose literary output interprets the heritage of the past and the urgent now.
Founded by Dr. Greg Grove in 1998, our fellowship of poets has been a thriving haven for aspiring artists in the High IQ community. Although our ranks are extremely diverse, we share a common bond in our love for all things poetic.”

Genius Society

IQ 146+

Apparently defunct. Link goes to a placeholder page, and the domain is apparently for sale. The only ‘Genius Society’ I could find is for an anime fan page. From the 2010 entry:

“The Genius Society is a worldwide high IQ society, founded in January 2004, with the purpose of bringing together qualified members at the 99.9th percentile in intelligence. As we need a measure of creativity, in addition to a High IQ, membership will be open only to individuals who are engaged in scientific research as demonstrated by peer-reviewed publications. The Genius Society aims to foster communication, friendship and cultural exchange among its members.”

Artifex Mens Congregatio

IQ 148+

Apparently defunct. Link goes to an error page. No useful links when the name is searched. From the 2010 entry:

“The Artifex Mens Congregatio ( Artistic Minds Society ) was founded in 2006 by Robert Mestre, Walter VanHuissteden and Fivos Drymiotis in an effort to create a forum bringing together in friendship and community artistic individuals from all over the globe. We would like to attract members interested in philosophy, science, poetry, art and puzzle design.”

International Society for Philosophical Inquiry

IQ 146+/149+ (99.9th percentile)

No fee mentioned

A page of qualifying test scores is on the site.

“The International Society for Philosophical Enquiry (ISPE) is a high-IQ society open to people who score at or above the 99.9th percentile on a standardized psychometric test of intelligence. Often referred to by the abbreviation “ISPE,” our society was originally founded as The Thousand* in 1974 by Christopher Harding of Australia. We are a non-profit organization, and we refer to our members as “Thousanders” because only one out of a thousand people will qualify for membership in ISPE, statistically speaking. We are the third-oldest high-IQ society in the world, with Mensa being the oldest (98th percentile) and Intertel being the second-oldest (99th percentile). ISPE is, therefore, the oldest high-IQ society in the world with an entrance requirement set at the 99.9th percentile. We accept the results of many tests for admission. See the “Tests & Test Scores” page located in the “Join ISPE” tab for a list of the specific tests and associated scores that we accept.”

Ludomind Society

IQ 150+ (99.96th percentile)

No fee mentioned

Semi-defunct. There is a related page, but the link to the Society page is dead.

“Ludomind was founded in 1999 by Albert Frank.
In 2003, it became an International Society, (re)founded by Peter Bentley and Albert Frank. The goal of the society is – without any exception – to present BEAUTIFUL puzzles. The members must of course specify if they are the author of the puzzle, or give the origin. A puzzle may never come from a (active or inactive) test.
Besides, the puzzles may not be (too) cultural, may not be related to a language (some members don’t speak English), and must not need high academics knowledge.”

ISI – Society

IQ 148+\151+ (99.97th percentile)

No fee mentioned

The Society apparently offers genetic intelligence testing (Membership Application).

A non-profit society dedicated to bringing together high IQ and creativity for the betterment of the world and fostering a community rich in intelligence and creativity.

The Isi-s (Society 151) was founded with the aim of bringing together intelligent individuals who also value creativity, referred to as geniuses.”

Apparently, the traditional ‘genius’ IQ of 140 isn’t going to cut it.

Posted by: bkivey | 20 April 2024

Nine High IQ Societies (Updated)

In the 14 years since ‘Nine High IQ Societies’ was published, it has been one of the more popular posts. Time for an update. Changes since the original post in 2010 are noted. Qualifying IQ scores are typically from the latest Stanford – Binet (SD 15). Where multiple qualifying scores are shown they represent SD=15/SD=16. Monetary values are US Dollars.

A brief word on IQ testing. No reputable organization will accept tests taken prior to age 16, and many have the cutoff at 18. Childhood IQ is measured in relation to peers, while adult IQ is compared to the population at large. The result is that an individual’s adult score will usually be lower than the childhood result. You didn’t get dumber; the competition got better. An SAT/ACT score is a much better indicator than that test you took in the 5th grade. Consequently, many people will quote their childhood results. On the statistical tails, one point represents a notable difference.

Also of note is that ‘genius’ is not an official term. The Wikipedia IQ Classification shows that the term was used for the 1916 Stanford – Binet, and not since. There is an edifying sample question from that test, as well as information on the population base for the original test. It was not representative of the Human population. Nonetheless, many people consider an IQ 140+ to be ‘genius’ level.

International High IQ Society

IQ 124+ or top 5% on any standardized test. (1 in 20)

Membership fee: One-time $259 (was $79 in 2010)

From the site:

“IHIQS was started by Nathan Haselbauer as the New York High IQ Society in 2000, with the aim of promoting discussions on a variety of intellectual topics. The organization became IHIQS later that year to reflect its growing international membership and is open to individuals who have demonstrated an IQ in the top five percent of the population.”

Mensa

No numeric IQ value; top 2% (~132) on any standardized test. (1 in 50)

Membership fee: $79/year, pro-rated by month of joining.

Lifetime memberships are available, pro-rated by age. The most expensive is, as you would expect, the 0 – 9 division at $2246. My cohort comes in at $1302 for the remainder of actuarial life. I was surprised that Mensan’s 100+ must still pay a $155 ‘lifetime’ membership fee. You might be able to renew annually and still come out ahead, so to speak.

From the site:

“Mensa has around 150,000 members of all ages in 90+ countries worldwide. The society provides its members with diverse and exciting opportunities for social, cultural, and intellectual interaction.”

Top One Percent Society

IQ 137+ (1 in 100)

No fee, but the site does say that membership is decided by committee, and that unsuccessful candidates may not be contacted.

In their own words:

“The Top One Percent Society (TOPS) was founded in July 1989 by Ronald K. Hoeflin, Ph.D.

TOPS is a high IQ society, at the 99th percentile of intelligence, dedicated to the intellectual stimulation and growth of its members. To this effect, a private discussion group has been set in place:”

Colloquy

IQ 140+ (1 in 200)

No fee

They might want to charge a fee, and use some of the proceeds to update their horrible mid-90’s website that hasn’t been updated since 2015.

As they say:

Colloquy is, to the best of our knowledge, the first high-IQ society based entirely on the Internet. As of 2015 Colloquy remains entirely Internet-based and cost-free to members. It is created as a forum for the collegial sharing of thoughts, experiences, and creative expression among people of superior intelligence.”

The Cerebrals Society

IQ 144+ (1 in 333)

No website. The link goes to a domain for sale. Possibly defunct.

From the 2010 post:

“Cerebrals Society is an international non-profit organization dedicated to the search of high intellectual giftedness among individuals, bringing highly gifted individuals together, and making full use of high intellectual giftedness for the good of human society in general, where possible. Cerebrals society will strive to reach understanding and promote thoughtfulness within as without, to spread what it gathers and reach always one step further into uncertainties of humanity.”

The Triple Nine Society

IQ 146+/149+ (1 in 1000)

No fee, but the print journal is $30/year, while the digital version is $10/year.

The Society helpfully provides a page on the site that lists qualifying scores from a number of standardized tests.

From the ‘What is TNS?’ page on the site:

“Founded in 1978, TNS is “committed to friendship, communication, the adventure of intellectual exploration, and a greater realization of individual potentials” (quoted from our Constitution). The guiding principles of the Society are democracy, collegiality, respect for diverse philosophies, and openness to innovation and evolution.”

Vertex Society

IQ 156+/160+ (1 in 11000)

No fee

On their ‘About’ page:

Fellows Society for Exceptionally and Profoundly Gifted (FSEPG) – Vertex, is an International Nonprofit Association gathering individuals with scores above IQ 160 SD16 on professional, standardized tests of intelligence – a rarity of 1/11,000 or 3.75 standard deviations above the mean – as far as intelligence can be reliably measured. It is one of the very few associations whose members are selected by means of professional, standardized, supervised intelligence tests only, which makes the society entrance claim undoubted as per standards of the scientific community.”

Prometheus Society

IQ 162+ (99.997th percentile, 1 in 30000)

Fee $10 /year

From the Home page:

Membership in the Society is open to anyone who has received a score on an accepted IQ test that is equal to or greater than that received by the highest one thirty thousandth of the general population.”

A little curious if this group is still active. The website does not appear to have been updated since 2018, and still lists Yahoo!Groups (shut down in 2020) as the discussion forum. Content on the rest of the site is thin.

Omega (Mega) Society

IQ 176+ (99.999th percentile, 1 in 1,000,000)

Fee is not published. Maybe they check your credit rating.

Whatever income this group enjoys, none of it is spent on the website. It’s worse than Colloquy.

Posted by: bkivey | 18 April 2024

The Worst Place to Live in America: V

Of the six measurements evaluated, two are city-specific, and not directly comparable to the State metrics. While I ranked the city scores 12 – 1, just as or the States, I did not use that score for the final tally. Because we are looking at States, I noted how many Cities each State had on one of the City lists, and used that incidence number for the score. This prevents a City with a high crime ranking, for instance, from skewing the State result.

For each metric, States were assigned values 12 – 1, with 12 the top entry, or the worst place on that particular list. The values were summed across categories, and the City scores added as noted. No further data processing was done: the scores are the scores. Based on the metrics and methodology described over the series of posts, and ranked from Not-really-so-bad, to Get-out-now, here are arguably the 12 worst States to live in the United States.

Louisiana

The Pelican State makes the list because it scores very high on people leaving, and because Lake Charles saw a near 7% population decrease 2020 – 2022, putting it on the City list of population decliners. The State population as a whole declined 1.8% over the period, good for third in that category.

Connecticut

To the surprise of no-one who lives in or around The Nutmeg State, Connecticut is on the list because it has the second-highest State tax burden in the country. The State is also top 12 for cost-of-living. Whatever the attractions of living there, you are going to pay for them.

Colorado

The Rocky Mountains are high, and so is the inflation rate in The Centennial State. Highest in the country, in fact. Colorado did not make the list in any other category, but let prices skyrocket, and you’re sitting at number 10. In fairness, inflation rate is such a transient measure, that if you move to Colorado next year, it will be fine. Probably.

Vermont

The Green Mountain State is in the top 10 for cost-of-living, and ranks #4 on tax burden. That combination lands it at #9. It is a pretty State, but maintaining that scenery costs money, apparently.

Utah

Utah makes the tax burden list, although at the bottom on that list, it’s still a higher burden than 38 other States. There is one city on the population decliners list, but the main reason The Beehive State is on this list, is that it has the second-highest inflation rate among the several States. Again, a transient condition, but those taxes aren’t going away.

Maryland

Maryland ranks around the middle of ne’er-do-wells on the cost-of-living and inflation rate lists, and a city makes the most dangerous cities list, although at the bottom. At #7, The Old Line State marks the first State on the list where crime becomes a factor.

Alaska

If you plan on living in The Last Frontier, bring bags of money. The tax burden is remarkably low, but the cost-of-living and inflation rate are remarkably high. Alaska makes the list at #6 just on those two factors.

Massachusetts

Second-highest cost-of-living in the country, and hemorrhaging people at the State and City level, The Bay State has citizens voting with their feet.

Illinois

From 2020 – 2023, The Land of Lincoln saw 2 people out of every 100 leave for other pastures, good for #2 on that measurement. The State has a medium-high tax burden among the top 12 offenders, which may increase as there are fewer people to pay taxes.

Before we look at the Top 3 Worst States in America, I’d like to point out that the scores for these States were double those of any other State. Remember, in this scenario, high score loses. These States are in a dystopian league of their own. To this point, most States scored in a couple of categories with middling scores, or one category with a high score. These States had high scores across multiple categories. They are the Get-out-now States. And, people are.

New York

The Empire State has well and truly fallen. Number one in population decrease and tax burden, #4 for cost-of-living. The Big Apple itself lost over 5% of its population 2020 – 2022, while the State itself lost a nation-leading 3% of its population. A place where nobody lives, nothing works, and the State has all the money. People used to come to this country, to get away from places like this. Ellis Island has become a monument to irony.

Hawai’i

Hawai’ians have the highest cost-of-living by a margin: over 20% higher than next-highest Massachusetts, but The Aloha State makes up for it with the fourth-highest State tax burden. The inflation rate is high, and that and the other factors may be why the State is on the list of largest population decliners. ‘Aloha’, also means ‘goodbye’.

California

Look up ‘failed state’. Was it a picture of California? The (once) Golden State was the only one to score in all six categories, and not by a little bit. California has become America’s own totalitarian regime. Third-highest cost-of-living, fourth in inflation rate and population decline, and the fifth-highest State tax burden. Five of the fastest-shrinking cities in the country are in California, all of them in the Bay Area. Three of the Top 12 crime-ridden cities are in California, one in the Bay Area. No other State placed more than one city in either category. ‘The Big One’ might actually be an improvement.

Conclusions

The first cut on any analysis is, does it feel right? Do the conclusions jibe with observation? I have seen people defend obviously wrong conclusions because ‘that’s what the math says’. The ‘math’ means nothing, by itself. If the conclusions are at variance with observation, the model is wrong.

The conclusions here feel right, especially the top 5. They are places historically and currently infamous for high costs and governed with a heavy hand. I do not think the same type of analysis with different metrics would yield markedly different results. California would still be the worst place to live in America. You could ask half of Oregon.

Posted by: bkivey | 16 April 2024

The Worst Place To Live in America: IV

To this point, we’ve seen the expensive States, the States that are becoming more expensive, places people are leaving, and States that love them some taxes. If you live in one of these expensive, reducing opportunity, tax-suffering places, you would hope that you would not also be at higher risk of having someone break into your house and take what little you have. Let’s find out where those place are.

The usual way to assess violent crime prevalence is incidents per 100,000 people. Ratios and percentages mean more than bare numbers. If a community has 1,000 violent crimes in a year, that’s a lot for a town of 10,000 people; and a place I’d be happy to live if the population was 250,000. Data without context is meaningless. There are a number of sites with this or similar information, and most have links to sources. Much of the information for this post is from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The Bureau is rather behind in it’s crime statistic reporting: the latest available violent crime data is from 2019. I would wager their Donald Trump file is much more current. Priorities, you know. This also means there is no FBI violent crime data for the entirety of the Biden Administration, a period covering a whole lot of violent crime.

As for what constitutes violent crime, and what we are looking at, we’ll use the definition straight off the FBI site:

“In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Violent crimes are defined in the UCR Program as those offenses which involve force or threat of force.”

The first part of the quote illustrates one of the main problems with many crime statistics: they rely on jurisdictions to self-report. There have also been changes in the way some crimes are reported, making historical comparison difficult. While violent crime is almost certainly under-reported, capturing the true value is less important than having consistent comparisons. Flawed data is still useful if it is consistently flawed. It’s when parameters start changing across datasets that problems occur.

For 2019, the mean violent crime rate in the US was 364/100,000, or 0.364%. To put another way, that’s about 1 victim for every 270 people. The 2022 rate was 0.380%, but since we have 2019 data, we’ll use the 2019 average. Of note, the 1991 US violent crime incidence was an eye-popping 0.758%, or 1 person in 132, more than twice the rate today. That was the national average. How did we ever survive? As usual, Blue = Democrat Red = Republican, and the year is the commencement year for the current party in power. For 2019, the most Gotham-like cities in the US were:

Source: FBI

If you look at other sources, using more recent data than the FBI has released, the rankings are not significantly different. It’s worth pointing out that a list of Safest Cities is meaningless, as many communities report no violent crime. It is evident, though, that some cities thought dens of iniquity are not as bad as feared. The actual Gotham City? You have to go all the way to #59 to find the Big Apple, and the violent crime incidence is 0.346%, or right around the national average. The first Empire State city to appear is Buffalo, at #22. Chicago? #17 at 1.099%, or about 3 times the national average. Los Angeles checks in at #32 and 0.761%.

On the other hand, the violent crime incident rates at the top of the list are shocking. In St. Louis, 1 in 48 people could be a violent crime victim. I say ‘could be’, because it’s likely that crime doesn’t visit once per person. You could be robbed and beaten. I do not know if that hypothetical would be recorded as two separate crimes that happened to the same victim, or if it’s just one incident. They would certainly be charged as two crimes. Still, 48, or more, people is not an unreasonable number to know. If you live in any of the top three or four cities on the list, you likely know a victim, or are one, of violent crime. It is notable that 3 of the top 12, Stockton, Oakland, and San Bernardino, are located in California. Missouri manages to place two cities, St Louis (1), and Kansas CIty (5) in the top five. Oooh, that’s not going to help in the rankings.

Other cities that frequently appear on high-crime lists are Philadelphia (0.948%), Atlanta (0.935%), Las Vegas (0.618%), and another California city, Fresno (0.565%). The lowest reported rate I could find was Irvine, California, at 0.061%, or 6x lower than the national average. If you have to live in California, live there.

Next: We find The Worst Place to Live in America

Posted by: bkivey | 14 April 2024

“She Was Just 17 . . . “

“If you know, what I mean.” (‘I Saw Her Standing There’ Beatles 1963)

What is the deal with rock bands and 17-year olds? This seeming obsession has been noticed by many, many folks for the uncomfortably high creep factor, especially given the rock-n-roller reputation. Besides the titular reference, just-to-hand examples include:

Let’s Go (The Cars 1979)

“And she won’t give up
‘Cause she’s seventeen”

Dancing Queen (ABBA 1976)

“Young and sweet
Only seventeen”

Edge of Seventeen (Stevie Nicks 1981)

But the moment that I first laid
Eyes on him, all alone
On the edge of seventeen

I Love Rock & Roll (Joan Jett & The Blackhearts 1981)

“I saw him dancin’ there by the record machine
I knew he must’ve been about 17″

There are many theories, most available on the internet, but I’m going with the one that passes the Okham Test:

17 is popular with songwriters because it easy to rhyme with; and it has three syllables so it is easy to fit into the cadence of many songs.

Google search page

So, not a genre of music populated by horny young people, but a mere rhyming scheme. In truth, this appears to an instance of serendipitous coalescence, as the concrete and abstract come together. Still a little creepy, though.

Posted by: bkivey | 13 April 2024

The Worst Place to Live in America: III

Taxes.

They will be paid. Our question today is, where will you pay the most?

For this comparison, we will ignore Federal taxes, as those are the same in every State, and focus on the State-specific tax burden. For this analysis, tax burden is defined as the sum of State and local taxes divided by a State’s share of the net national product. The net national product is a country’s Gross National Product minus the depreciation (replacement cost) of capital assets. The taxes for this consideration are only those afflicted statewide on the general public, and do not include licensing, use, permitting, or any local taxes, such as property assessments. If you live in a State that allows local income taxes, like California and New York, your tax bite will likely be higher.

The most recent year for which I could find reliable data was 2022, when the US national average State tax burden was 11.20 %. Of interest, the States with a burden equal to the national average (Iowa/Kansas #16 tie), are well above the mean of 25. This says to me that the State’s with the higher burdens are skewing the average. As usual States are coded to gubernatorial affiliation Democrat = Blue Republican = Red, and the years are the current Party’s commencement in power.

Source: Tax Foundation

Residents of The Bay State may be surprised that ‘Taxachusetts’ doesn’t make the Top 12. Massachusetts just misses the cut at #13 and 11.50%, not far off the national average, but with an 8% difference, significantly below the next contender. Otherwise, the usual suspects are all present.

Source: Tax Foundation

Alaska’s rate is so low as to be a near-outlier. I visited Michigan on vacation one year, and noticed that my tax burden would be significantly lower than where I live ( #19 Oregon 10.80%).

Looking at historical trends, for the period 2000 – 2022, the States with the largest increase in tax burden were:

Source: Tax Foundation

It’s two decades, but, still. Things aren’t looking great for Hawai’i: a declining population, rising prices in a place that is already the most expensive State in the country, and rising taxes. And, no easy way to leave.

Some States saw tax burden decrease for the period:

Source: Tax Foundation

The astute will notice that there are only 10 States here, because after Missouri, the tax burden increased. During the Insane Clown Posse years 2019 – 2022, the States with the largest tax burden increase:

Source: Tax Foundation

And the States with largest tax burden decrease for the period:

Source: Tax Foundation

Alaskans enjoy the lowest State tax burden in the country, and their taxes are declining? Likely the State’s 35% (!) tax on oil sales has something to do with that. Political party prevalence seems to be a mixed bag among advancers and decliners.

Whatever the State tax burden is, States collect revenue in different ways. Some emphasize consumption taxes, others are focused on income confiscation, and some hit you with everything they can, including collection methods of very dubious legality. Looking at you, California.

The Top 12 and Bottom 12 States by Tax Burden, and how they collect:

Source: Tax Foundation

Source: Tax Foundation

Nothing mixed here: the top 12 are predominantly Democrat, while the bottom of the list is a Republican lock, with Michigan the lone Democrat entry. Interesting how Oklahoma collects tax in every category, yet still has a lower State tax burden than 40 other States, and it looks like Alaska doesn’t collect much if you don’t buy anything. I noticed a number of States that had multiple revenue streams, yet were below the national average tax burden. Sort of a nickel-and-dime approach, although in some States it’s more like fives and tens. I have lived in places that took this approach, and it is annoying. You feel like the State has its hand out every time you turn around. Because, it does.

Although this exercise deals with taxes residents pay, many State and local governments get a significant amount of revenue from ‘tourist taxes’, usually rental car, restaurant, and hotel room surcharges. Florida is big on this, and outside the occasional car rental, those taxes tend to be transparent to residents. This transparency also makes these taxes an easy sell: you’re not paying them, and those Yankees can leave some more money with us. Until you aren’t a resident anymore, and come for a visit. The last time I was in Florida, I was floored by the rental car surcharges. Hotel room fees added a fair bit more. I can’t really complain too much: I probably voted for some of those taxes.

Next: The Most Dangerous Cities in the US

Sources and Definitions

Tax Foundation

Much of the information for this post came from this site, and there is a wealth of information, and explanation on how it is derived. I will point out that while I got source information, including spreadsheets, from the site, the presentation is mine.

Tax Burden

You would think there would be a standard definition for a term so often used, but that is not the case. In fact, most sources just demonstrate the use of the term in a sentence. ‘Tax burden’ refers to a specific value, as given at the start of the post. For the most part, the definitions found do not indicate how this value is obtained. That’s not really a definition, at all.

Collins English Dictionary “the amount of tax paid by a person, company, or country in a specified period considered as a proportion of total income in that period.”

Multinationals can also shift profits to reduce their total tax burden; they can show larger profits in countries with lower tax rates.

Not political, or anything.

Mirriam-Webster “responsibility for paying a greater portion of taxes”

“The tax burden has been falling increasingly on the middle class.”

See above.

Oxford Reference “The amount of tax suffered by an individual or organization.”

True as far as it goes, which isn’t far enough. I do like the very British, and very old-school, use of the word ‘suffered’.

Cambridge Dictionary “the total amount of tax paid by a particular group of people, an industry, etc., especially as compared to what other groups, industries, etc. pay:

For those who are not an Oxford Man, or even a Baird Man, we’ll let the Oxford refugees weigh in. Probably should have stopped after ‘etc.’

Related Reading

“Let Me Tell You How It Will Be . . .”

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